1. What is Positive EV?

Positive Expected Value (EV) represents situations where the mathematical expectation of a bet or investment is favorable. It means that over time, you expect to make money from this opportunity.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the Positive EV formula:

Where:

• Fair win prob — The true probability of winning (0 to 1)
• Profit — The amount you stand to win
• Fair loss prob — The true probability of losing (0 to 1)
• Stake — The amount you risk

Explanation: The equation calculates whether a bet has positive expected value by comparing the weighted potential profit against the weighted potential loss.

3. Importance of Positive EV Calculation

Details: Identifying positive EV opportunities is crucial for long-term profitability in betting, trading, and investment decisions. Only consistently taking positive EV bets leads to sustainable gains.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter the true probabilities (not bookmaker odds), potential profit, and stake. All values must be positive numbers with probabilities between 0 and 1.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What's considered a good positive EV?
A: Any positive EV is theoretically good, but practical considerations (variance, bankroll) mean most bettors look for EV > 5% of stake.

Q2: How do I find fair probabilities?
A: Through statistical models, comparing multiple bookmakers, or using betting exchanges to derive implied probabilities.

Q3: Does positive EV guarantee profit?
A: No, it guarantees positive expectation over many repetitions. Short-term variance can still lead to losses.

Q4: What's the difference between EV and ROI?
A: EV is absolute expected value in dollars, while ROI (Return on Investment) is EV relative to stake.

Q5: Can this be used for stock investments?
A: Yes, the concept applies to any probabilistic scenario with defined outcomes and probabilities.