1. What is Expected Value in Betting?

Expected Value (EV) is a statistical concept that represents the average amount a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet if the bet is repeated multiple times. A positive EV indicates a profitable bet in the long run.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the OddsJam Expected Value formula:

Where:

• \( P_{win} \) — Probability of winning (decimal)
• \( Profit_{win} \) — Profit if the bet wins ($)
• \( P_{loss} \) — Probability of losing (decimal)
• \( Stake \) — Amount risked on the bet ($)

Explanation: The equation calculates the long-term average profit or loss per bet, accounting for both the probability and magnitude of wins and losses.

3. Importance of EV Calculation

Details: Calculating EV helps bettors identify +EV opportunities where the potential reward outweighs the risk, which is crucial for long-term profitability in sports betting.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter all probabilities as decimals between 0 and 1. The sum of win and loss probabilities should typically equal 1 (or less if there's a push/tie possibility).

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What is a good EV for a bet?
A: Generally, any positive EV (+EV) is good, but many professional bettors look for EV of +5% or more of the stake.

Q2: How is fair probability determined?
A: Fair probability can be derived from the implied probability of the odds or from your own statistical model.

Q3: Does positive EV guarantee a win?
A: No, EV is about long-term expectation. Short-term results can vary due to variance.

Q4: How do I calculate profit if win?
A: Profit = (Stake × Odds) - Stake. For example, $100 at +150 odds would return $250 ($150 profit + $100 stake).

Q5: Should I only make +EV bets?
A: While +EV is ideal, bankroll management and bet sizing are equally important for long-term success.