Hcm Risk Calculator Esc

ESC HCM Risk Equation:

\[ \text{Probability (\%)} = 1 - 0.998^{\exp(\text{Prognostic Index})} \] \[ \text{Prognostic Index} = 0.15939858 \times \text{MWT} - 0.00294271 \times \text{MWT}^2 + 0.0259082 \times \text{LAS} + 0.00446131 \times \text{MLVOTG} + 0.4583082 \times \text{FHSCD} + 0.82639195 \times \text{NSVT} + 0.71650361 \times \text{US} - 0.01799918 \times \text{Age} \]

Maximum Wall Thickness (MWT):

Left Atrial Size (LAS):

Maximum LVOT Gradient (MLVOTG):

mm Hg

Family History of SCD (FHSCD):

Non-Sustained VT (NSVT):

Unexplained Syncope (US):

Age:

years

5-Year Risk of SCD (%):

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1. What is the ESC HCM Risk Calculator?

The ESC HCM Risk Calculator estimates the 5-year risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) using seven clinical parameters. It's based on the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines for HCM risk stratification.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the ESC HCM Risk Equation:

Where:

\( MWT \) — Maximum wall thickness (mm)
\( LAS \) — Left atrial size (mm)
\( MLVOTG \) — Maximum left ventricular outflow tract gradient (mm Hg)
\( FHSCD \) — Family history of sudden cardiac death (0 or 1)
\( NSVT \) — Non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (0 or 1)
\( US \) — Unexplained syncope (0 or 1)
\( Age \) — Age in years

Explanation: The equation calculates a prognostic index that is then converted to a percentage risk using an exponential function.

3. Importance of SCD Risk Assessment

Details: Accurate risk stratification is crucial for identifying HCM patients who may benefit from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy for primary prevention of SCD.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter all required parameters. MWT and LAS should be measured by echocardiography or cardiac MRI. MLVOTG should be the maximum gradient measured at rest or with provocation.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What is considered a high-risk result?
A: According to ESC guidelines, ≥6% 5-year risk is considered high enough to recommend ICD implantation for primary prevention.

Q2: How accurate is this calculator?
A: The calculator has been validated in large HCM populations with good discriminative ability (C-statistic ~0.70).

Q3: Are there limitations to this calculator?
A: It may underestimate risk in certain subgroups (e.g., those with massive hypertrophy >30mm) and doesn't incorporate all potential risk markers.

Q4: Should this replace clinical judgment?
A: No, the calculator should be used as part of a comprehensive clinical assessment that considers all individual patient factors.

Q5: How often should risk be reassessed?
A: Annual reassessment is recommended, or whenever new clinical information becomes available.